Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Missing yet another bus

"India's fundamentals are in tact. Sub-prime debacle will not impact emerging markets. It's Yen carry unwinding spooking markets".
How many time have we heard this ? I am getting tired. Truth is, sell-side analysts have again been caught off-guard. While they were swearing by their spread sheets, the markets tossed and turned. As usual, they were clueless.
It’s in the air, I can smell it. We've left a market top, and we're nearing the end of an era -- the private equity era as we know it. It hasn't ended yet, and deals are still going to get done, but if you miss the boat on selling at the top, you will have to wait for the next cycle. When will that be…?

The credit markets are in turmoil, interest rates are zooming, and private equity firms aren't going to pay what they've been paying for companies. If you've got a tempting offer to sell your business, take it – before it's too late.

Just as in 2000, when the bubble burst, too much money have been chasing too many deals. Once the good deals were out of the way, the money started chasing bad deals. That rarely ends well.

But a new era of something will start soon. The trick to making lots of money is to get in early. Not necessarily first, but early. So if anybody out there knows what the next financial wave will be, just let me know.

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