The analyst and his forecasts

The analysts are a shameless lot.

Their forecasts have been proved wrong time and again, still they don’t hold back. Wonder who pays them to dish out muck!

Goldman Sachs? Its analysts earlier predicted crude will touch $200 a barrel. It slid to $80 levels. Thank the consumers that lowered their demands. Now they guess it to touch $50 a barrel. Should we be scared it will climb back to $100 plus…?
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Man up, brokers....

Warren Buffet said “You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out - and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight." He was referring to Wall Street I-Bankers pummeled by liquidity crisis.

Closer home, we've got something brewing of the sort... Some of India’s leading brokerages that suffered huge losses in the recent market crash are postponing declaration of Q4 results. Why do they hide behind legally permissible extensions...? Is it not the same tribe that talked down many a stock and businesses that delayed publication of quarterly numbers? Now how ugly they look in the mirror?

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It's time the big boys learned to man up!

Here are some of the big names (Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss, Religare and so on…) struggling to cover their asses :)

Here you have some of my takes on their analysts.

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Never play a stock ; Play the analyst...

Ok, scumbags. You didn’t listen when I tipped you in on Sugar stocks. Now grieve. No, I don’t look at fundamentals. I don’t look at technicals. That’s for friggin’ chartists who make a living by staring at computer screens and fooling the world with their harebrained forecasts that never come true. They work for an end of month paycheck and commissions. You and I bet our hard earned money on the stocks that these guys `think’ would go up… If you do, you’ll be getting out soon. Out of this game.

In India, you bet on politics. I always do. I bet on the minister. More influential he is, more loyal his voters are. That's why I tipped sugar stocks. Look at this “sweet” guy Sharad Pawar, Agriculture Minister. He answers my wish list to the T. I know how his mind works. I’ll share it with you. This guy loves just two things - the sugar belt of Baramati and BCCI, one of world's richest sports (Cricket) bodies. Let’s keep cricket out for the time being. The folks over there at Baramati, eat sugarcane for breakfast and molasses for lunch. They sleep on mats made out of cane leaves and wear sugar coats for dinner. They don’t drink water, they feast on cane juice. They all die of diabetes and the chemists there have made their fortunes just by selling insulin. The only thing they know is to vote this guy Pawar back to power. That’s it – isn't it simple enough? Either they are at the cane fields or at the polling booth. That's how they lead their lives. He will give us more of good news on Sugar because he needs those sugar coated votes. The folks at Baramati don’t vote if it isn’t dude Pawar’s name on the ballot. So I say, buy sugar stocks. As much as you can. I do. Never sell your sugar stocks so long as you got this Sugar Daddy at the top and as long as analysts keep talking it down. Sell them only if pawar man leaves the deck or when analysts talk it up.

Now mill owners, keep a steady supply of Ethanol even during weak season. Daddy will hike the blending ceiling from 10% to as much as you can make. He’s struck a deal with that Deora guy at Petroleum ministry. They’re on phone all the time. When they meet in public, they wink and nod a lot. Export subsidy? Granted. Kamal Nath won’t object. A deal there too. Co-generation ? Go ahead. Life’s good. That's my fundamental and technical analysis for you. What say you...?

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Don’t believe a word those friggin' analysts say. They all will trash a sector while their broking bosses are stocking up on it. When they’ve had enough, they’ll talk as if that’s going to be the next big thing. That’s when you should dump your stocks and rip those suckers.

Don’t play the stock. Play the fuckin' analyst. You heard me….!

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Banish them all

There’s always big trouble if you take brokerage reports seriously. They analyse everything to death.

I know there are surgical processes for genital rejuvenation, liposuction and buttock implants. Is there something for Analyst annihilation? Me thinks investors world over will only be too happy to pick up the tab.

Every day they brazenly appear on business channels, newspapers (and even your email inbox is not spared) advising you to buy some or other stock. You go by their words and you’ll never get out of it. They talk as if they are economists (they connect Ben Bernanke’s rate cut with the fortunes of Indian Banking stocks and still say “decoupling”), scientists (wax eloquently on the potential of a “new” drug discovery that never takes off) and technologists (a sure dud, it will be) all rolled into one.

Yesterday just five minutes before the market opened, one analyst said Sugar stocks have no scope for another year. He quoted over supply, low prices, policy hurdles and what not. Up they went 20% and hit the upper circuits. It had me in splits.

I have 40% of my portfolio in sugar. All bought at 52 week lows when everyone was busy buying overheated Real Estate, Infrastructure and Power sector stocks. I had another reason. Not one analyst put out a `buy’ on it.